Average GTA Home Prices to Top $1 Million for Time in 2021

If a pandemic and COVID can't stop the housing market, then what else can?"

Our thoughts on Toronto’s real estate statistics for January 2021:

• No surprise, the January stats reflect the craziness we’ve been seeing with our clients – the market is as red-hot as we’ve ever seen it!
• Prices are WAY up – 15.5% higher than last January.
• While condo prices are technically down vs Jan 2020, that’s mostly because of the slow-down and price decreases we saw in the fall. The condo market came roaring back to life in Jan 2021 – in fact, condo sales were up more than 85% in January! The opportunity to negotiate has been replaced with the opportunity to win a bidding war strategically.
• REALTORS use ‘months of inventory’ as a gauge – how long would it take for ALL the properties listed for sale to sell? When ‘months of inventory’ is more than 4+ months – that’s considered a ‘Buyer’s market’, where Buyers are in charge. Current inventory in Toronto? 1.6 months. Sellers are firmly in charge.

Want more detail? Check out TRREB's Full Report

What do we expect for February? More of the same.

January 2021 vs. January 2020

January 2021 vs. December 2020

Click here to see Toronto Real Estate Board's Full Report

Homebuyers in the Greater Toronto Area better prepare to spend more than they ever have before as the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) predicts that the average selling price for homes in the area will top $1 million for the first time later this year and that by the time 2021 ends the average selling price in the region will be $1.025 million, up from an average $929,692 in 2020.

• TRREB said January home sales reached 6,928, up from the 4,546 homes sold in the same month last year.
• The average selling price was up by 15.5 per cent to $967,885, an increase from $838,087 in 2020.
• The number of new listings also climbed to 9,430, a 20 per cent spike from last year's 7,848.

Price growth was driven by the low-rise sector, while the average condo apartment price was down in Toronto. However, if we continue to see condo sales growth surpass condo listings growth, we could start to see renewed growth in condo prices later this year.

"We've reverted back to the scenario that really we've been talking about a lot over the past number of years, where the supply of listings coming onto the market is not keeping up with growth in transactions," said Jason Mercer, TRREB's chief market analyst, at a press conference.  "Taking those demand factors into account, plus what we're looking at for new listings coming into the market, that spells continued tightness."

Mercer's remarks come as the area rang in the new year with an unprecedented flurry of home purchases that pushed the number of sales up by 52 per cent and the average selling price to nearly $1 million.

The spikes were fueled by an atypical winter, where people were discouraged from gathering for the holidays in an effort to quell COVID-19, the region wasn't often being blanketed with snow and interest rates were low.

That left people with fewer social engagements, more lending power and more time to hunt for new properties, especially ones outside the hot downtown core that offered an escape from the city while people continue to work from home.

The board predicts sales will total 105,000 in 2021 and new listings will hit 160,00, up from 95,115 and 156,755 respectively last year.  TRREB president Lisa Patel said those spikes will be fueled in part by the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, declining cases of the virus in hot spots and very low mortgage rates.  "Once we shift out of this lockdown, those that are comfortable will have the opportunity to put their homes on the market," she said.  "That might open up supply a little bit more."

The board believes new condominium apartment listings will slow towards the second half of the year and low-rise listings will remain constrained.

Market conditions for low-rise homes, including detached houses, will remain very tight, with sales rising at a faster pace than listings, TRREB warned.

.This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 8, 2021

Click here to see Toronto Real Estate Board's Full Report

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